I am the Sports Editor at a sports news and gambling website. I have many years experience in sports journalism, gambling and mathematics research. Are I a professional in gambling? You could argue that.
There are a myriad of gambling experts willing to dish out details of their gambling systems to beat the bookie or to make an additional www.ufabet money from gambling. But for the cost of course. I will not do this. I’ll only give you details about bookmakers, chances and gambling to make use of (or leave out) according to your own preferences.
The first thing to note is the fact that the vast majority of those who participate in betting will end up net losers in the end. This is precisely why that there are so many bookmakers who earn a huge amount of money all over the world.
Although bookmakers may suffer big losses, for instance if a favourite is victorious in the Grand National, they spread their risk in such a way that they have markets set up which include a margin thus they can always make a profit over the medium and long term, if not the immediate term. This is in the event that they get their numbers right.
When setting their odds for any particular event before deciding on their odds, bookmakers have to first determine the chance of the event taking place. To do this they us different statistical models based upon the data collected over years sometimes decades about the sport , team or player of the event. Of course, if sport was 100% predictable then it could end its appeal. while bookies usually are accurate in their estimates of the likelihood of an event, they are often way off because a game or contest goes against common sense and statistical probability.
Take a look at any sport and you will find instances where the underdog prevails against all the odds in the literal sense. Wimbledon beating the then powerful Liverpool during the FA Cup Final of 1988 For instance and the USA defeating the then powerful USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two examples of where you could have gotten impressive odds for the underdog. You could also have walked away with a substantial wedge.
The biggest bookmakers spend much of their time and money ensuring that they are able to calculate the right odds to take into account the perceived probabilities of the event and then add that extra little bit that gives them an income margin. If an event is said to have an odds of say, 1/3, the odds that represent the probability are 2/1. It’s there is a two-to-one chance of that incident occurring.
However, a bookie who has set the odds would, over time, make a profit (assuming their numbers are accurate). Instead, they’d put the odds at like, say, 6/4. This way, they have created a margin that will ensure that over time, they will profit from people betting on this selection. It’s the same concept like a roulette game in a casino.
How do you recognize the instances when bookmakers have made a mistake? Well, it’s easier to say than done, but very much doable.
One way is to get proficient in mathematical modeling and create an understanding that takes account as many of the variables that impact the result of an event as possible. The issue with this method is that however complex the model may be, and no matter how all-encompassing it seems it is unable to account for the minutiae of the variables that affect individuals’ mental states. When a golfer can make a five-foot putt on the 18th hole at St Andrews it is as important to their level of concentration as it is to the weather or the day in the course. Also, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.
Or, you could find the perfect sport niche. Bookmakers focus their efforts on the sports events that bring them the most money, generally found to be sports (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat bookmakers when betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match is not easy. If you do not work for some of the teams or are married to one of the players or managers It is highly likely that the bookmaker that is setting the odds will have more info than you.
If you’re gambling on non-league soccer, or badminton, crown green bowls, it is possible by diligently reading many statistics, and general research it is possible to make a difference over bookies (if they do offer odds for these things (which a lot of bookies do).
And what should you do when you’ve got an advantage in terms of information? You take note of the value.
Value betting is where you put your money on a wager with odds that are higher than the probability of an event occurring. So for instance, if you estimate the chance of a specific non-league football squad (Grimsby Town, for example) taking their place in the next game as 33% or 1/3 when you come across the bookmaker has set odds of 3/1 you’ve got a bet of value in your pocket. The reason being, odds that are 3/1 (excluding the margin built in by the bookmaker) give a likelihood of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your opinion now is underestimating Grimsby’s odds, so you have effectively constructed an 8% profit for yourself.
Of of course Grimsby (as is often the most of the time) might fluff their lines and fail to win the game, which means you might lose the bet. But if you continue to look for and place bets on the value bets, over time, you’ll make profits. If you don’t then, over time you’ll lose. Simple.